Re: HIV e AIDS

Inviato da  UTO il 15/1/2006 14:05:49

Approposito di profilattici e trasmissione del virus HIV, ecco cosa riportato sul Journal of Scientific Exploration 19 #4, December 2005:


HIV IS NOT READILY TRANSMISSIBLE

That conundrum can be resolved as soon as it is posed: HIV did not spread rapidly, because itcould not. The conventional wisdom--purveyed and entrenched by the popular media, by charitable organizations, and even by authoritative bureaucracies--has not kept pace with what has been learned over the years in direct studies of the transmission of HIV: HIV is unlike a sexually transmitted infection19 (STI) in being not very transmissible. The probability of being infected
when stuck by a contaminated needle is less than 1%; via unprotected intercourse the probability is something like 1 per 1000.

NEEDELS

It is a shibboleth, but also a myth, that needle-sharing spreads HIV.
One study found HIV+ nearly twice as high among IDU who did not share needles (34%) as among those who did (19%), at the same clinic [60]. Similarly, an independent study in Montreal found that clean needles were associated with decreased transmission of hepatitis B but with increased HIV+ [61]. A study of IDU prisoners in Maryland found no spread of HIV infection during two years [62].
At first, it had been feared that health-care workers would become infected through accidental needle-punctures. Actual data have shown the fear to be baseless. Surveys of medical personnel in military service found no occupational risk of HIV infection. Indeed, the annual incidence of HIV 15
infection was actually lower among medical personnel than non-medical personnel for females (0.68/1000 versus 0.86) and for married males (0.09 vs. 0.10). Only among male nurses was this reversed, indicating that the risk here was owing to some non-occupational factor [25, 63].
The risk of transmission of HIV from needle-stick was found to be low or negligible in another study where as many as 14% of subjects reported such contact with needles that had made contact with AIDS patients [64]. Quantitative estimates of risk in still other studies were on the order of 0.3% to 0.4% [65--70].
For comparison, transmission of hepatitis B via needle-stick has an
efficiency of 20--40% [67]. Among needle-sharing IDU in Britain, hepatitis B and C were transmitted with efficiencies of more than 10% and 20% respectively while the efficiency for HIV was well under 1% (Coreslide 8 in [71]).
Despite initial concerns, health-care workers have not contracted AIDS even after inadvertent exposure to HIV in blood [72]. Altogether, there are very few instances, if any, of becoming HIVpositive through occupational hazards [73]: only 40 documented and 83 possible cases up to 1993 (Table 16, p. 19 in [74]), by which time there had been 360,000 reported cases of AIDS; revised to
only 57 possible cases up to December 2001 [75], by which time the total number of AIDS cases was nearly 790,000.

INTERCOURSE

It is also a shibboleth, and again also a myth, that unprotected intercourse brings great danger of spreading HIV. The risk of sexual transmission of HIV has been found in several independentstudies to be well under 1%, more like 0.1% or even less:
• on the order of 1 per 1000 acts of intercourse [76] or more precisely 0.8--1 per 1000 [77] or 0.5
--2.3 [78];
• in a ten-year study [79], rather less than 1 per 1000 for male-to-female transmission (0.0009
was the actual figure) and much less than that (0.00011) for female-to-male transmission;
• less than 1 per 1000 for male-to-female and half that for female-to male [80];
• for male-to-female, 0.8--1 per 1000 [81], or 0.6--2.6 [82], or 0.6--0.9 [83], or 0.6--0.8 [84], or
0.5--1.2 [85];
• the risk of becoming HIV-positive was only 7% during a year of unprotected intercourse with
an infected partner [86] (which would correspond to only 70 acts of intercourse in a year at a
transmission rate of 1 per thousand; if there had been more frequent intercourse, then the
transmission rate was correspondingly even lower);
• in Africa (Mwanza), a study of 1802 couples found infection rates among discordant couples (one partner initially HIV-positive and the other initially negative) of 10 per 100 person-years male-to-female and 5 per 100 person-years for female-to-male [87]. For 100 acts of intercourse per year, that corresponds once again to about 1 per 1000 acts for male-to-female and half of
that for female-to-male transmission.
Thus the risk of transmitting HIV is hundreds of times less than that of transmitting STDs (sexually transmitted disease):
“the likelihood of transmitting gonorrhea during vaginal intercourse ranges from 20 percent to 80 percent for female-to-male transmission and from 50 percent to 70 percent for male-to- female transmission.6 The chance of infection for syphilis is about 30 percent with each sexual exposure to syphilis sores.7 In general, herpes, HPV, trichomoniasis, gonorrhea, chlamydia, and syphilis are the
most highly transmissible STDs” [88]. Other estimates for gonorrhea transmission are 50% likelihood for male-to-female transmission and 25% for female-to-male [89], or 80% male-tofemale and 20--25% for female-to-male [90].
In any case, “the transmission probabilities presented are so low that it becomes difficult to understand the magnitude of the HIV-1 pandemic” [91]--difficult to understand if HIV is sexually transmitted; indeed, impossible to understand. It remains only to draw the obvious inference that
HIV is not sexually transmitted.

Se fossi capace, aggiungerei pure un grafico che riporta l'andamento del numero di persone infette da HIV dal 1985 al 2003 in diverse categorie di individui...
qualcuno mi puo' dire come si attachano le immagini?

mbUTO