Re: Disastro o cospirazione? Discussione sulla crisi economica in corso
Inviato da Descartes il 17/10/2008 1:00:19
Financial Times ammette: è deflazione anche da noi. La bolla dei derivati si è sgonfiata di 5.8 Trilioni di Euro.
Thursday, October 16, 2008
The titanic power of deflationary deleveraging
This comment from the financial times regarding UBS and their overnight $60bn -- no typo, just for UBS -- bailout from the swiss national bank sums up the extraordinarily dire outlook for capital markets.
Put this latest broad sellof into context… and it’s pretty clear it’s a trend: UBS is deleveraging.
The “toxicity” of the assets it’s dumping are not linked necessarily to their likelihood of default or the way they’ve been structured, but rather, the fact that they are simply levered assets UBS cannot afford to have on its balance sheet.
The trend will be identical for all banks, and as the recession weighs significantly on consumer sentiment and spending, more and more asset classes will turn into unacceptable liabilities for banks.
It’s a debt-deflationary scenario. Which again will bring out comparison to the Great Depression.
From analysts at JPM this morning (highlights ours):
Our 29 selected Euro banks are at 3.75% equity/asset ratio based on IFRS account. Reaching an eq./asset ratio of 4.5% would require €5.8tn of asset reductions. In total we estimate potential for reductions of €1.2tn from repos, €2.7tn from trading assets, €0.5tn of loan reductions and the balance of €1.5tn needed to come from other assets. The banks most exposed in our view are DB, UBS and BARC looking at current eq/asset ratio and the b/s maturity profile.
Those are figures against which all the Tarps in the world cannot protect the real economy.
As Citi’s European banking analysts said in a note on Wednesday: "If it feels like we are living through history at the moment, it’s probably because we are."
And one can compound that with further hedge fund delevering and liquidation, which still has a significant way to run.
This is depression, and i sincerely doubt any government action can impede its terrible momentum now short of global banking system nationalizations. The banks have taken a hand, and it is unsurprisingly every man for himself.
fonte: link
E questo se non fallisce nessun altra banca. Ma il 21 Ottobre scadono 400 miliardi di cds di Lehman, e qualcuno dovrà pagare il conto...
Thursday, October 16, 2008
The titanic power of deflationary deleveraging
This comment from the financial times regarding UBS and their overnight $60bn -- no typo, just for UBS -- bailout from the swiss national bank sums up the extraordinarily dire outlook for capital markets.
Put this latest broad sellof into context… and it’s pretty clear it’s a trend: UBS is deleveraging.
The “toxicity” of the assets it’s dumping are not linked necessarily to their likelihood of default or the way they’ve been structured, but rather, the fact that they are simply levered assets UBS cannot afford to have on its balance sheet.
The trend will be identical for all banks, and as the recession weighs significantly on consumer sentiment and spending, more and more asset classes will turn into unacceptable liabilities for banks.
It’s a debt-deflationary scenario. Which again will bring out comparison to the Great Depression.
From analysts at JPM this morning (highlights ours):
Our 29 selected Euro banks are at 3.75% equity/asset ratio based on IFRS account. Reaching an eq./asset ratio of 4.5% would require €5.8tn of asset reductions. In total we estimate potential for reductions of €1.2tn from repos, €2.7tn from trading assets, €0.5tn of loan reductions and the balance of €1.5tn needed to come from other assets. The banks most exposed in our view are DB, UBS and BARC looking at current eq/asset ratio and the b/s maturity profile.
Those are figures against which all the Tarps in the world cannot protect the real economy.
As Citi’s European banking analysts said in a note on Wednesday: "If it feels like we are living through history at the moment, it’s probably because we are."
And one can compound that with further hedge fund delevering and liquidation, which still has a significant way to run.
This is depression, and i sincerely doubt any government action can impede its terrible momentum now short of global banking system nationalizations. The banks have taken a hand, and it is unsurprisingly every man for himself.
fonte: link
E questo se non fallisce nessun altra banca. Ma il 21 Ottobre scadono 400 miliardi di cds di Lehman, e qualcuno dovrà pagare il conto...
Messaggio orinale: https://old.luogocomune.net/site/newbb/viewtopic.php?forum=46&topic_id=4492&post_id=128439